Monday, March 15, 2010

Instant Analysis: The Beginning of the Campaign

So far, it looks like Seth is leading our informal poll (see above). While it is obviously incredibly unscientific, 80+ total votes isn't anything to scoff at. That said, it is pretty close, and his lead is certainly not commanding.

The battle for Facebook group (or fan page) membership is also quite close. Seth actually has the fewest, with Nirvana leading the way with her 264 fans, slightly ahead of Nate's 217 group members. Anthony has 188 group members and 176 fans. Remember, last year, Zack Solomon had far more members in his Facebook group than Andy did (although he was running on a ticket with VP Prescott).

Who is the frontrunner? It is unclear. Nate and Nirvana would seem to appeal most naturally to people within the SG, who are most likely to vote. Seth appeals to people who want to see things shaken up a bit more radically, but those people usually don't care and don't vote. But there are a lot of them. Anthony may also be able to take away SG votes, and could control the RHA vote. So right now, the race is wide open.

What could really swing things? Big endorsements. Most notably The Eagle. Last year they didn't make much difference. With such an impressive and deep field this year, they could elevate one of these candidates to frontrunner status.

Will Mike Mayer be making an endorsement? Anything is possible.

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